Cuba has Fallen

Cuba has fallen. But let me make this distinction clear. Díaz-Canel is still technically in office, but holding on by a thread. I mean the Cuban people are in crisis and have fallen. Nearly one million people — about 10% of the population — get their drinking water from tanker trucks, while 84% of pumping equipment depends on electricity. No power means no water for a million people. Five million people living with chronic illnesses have treatments at risk. Over 32,000 pregnant women are affected. Experts warned that if no new fuel shipments arrived in March, Cuba could reach "zero hour" — total depletion of fuel reserves — and fall into its worst economic crisis since the 1930s, mind you I am writing this 17 days into March.

As the resident history nerd, you might ask what is happening. Well the simple version is the United States has forced Cuba into a complete blackout. So why and how? One, the US are assholes, well Trump is, and two, by placing an embargo on Cuba meaning no fuel/gas/oil can get in. Now I'll make it clear. Cuba doesn't depend on the US for fuel, they rely on Venezuela and Mexico. The US decided to strongarm everyone to block Cuba's oil supply. Trump said he believes he'll have the "honor of taking Cuba." "I mean, whether I free it, take it — I think I could do anything I want with it," he said, calling Cuba "a very weakened nation." NPR. He also said Cuba would be "next" after Iran.

Now for motive. This is very debated over but here are the documented ones first, then we'll get into speculation. For Cuba specifically, Trump wants a regime change. Oil and energy dominance. The US currently in the war with Iran has shut down — or rather, Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, but semantics. Anyway, they need oil, more than they are currently borrowing from Russia. Next is the military industrial complex. This has been happening for ages. Literally since WWII, Eisenhower in his farewell address literally coined the term "military industrial complex" and warned that the relationship between the defense industry and the government was becoming a threat to democracy itself. This wasn't a hippie saying it. This was the Supreme Commander of Allied Forces in WW2 saying "we have built something that needs war to survive." Like holy shit. And moving on, Claude explains this better than me so I'm going to copy and paste with a couple edits. This shit is mind blowing. Defense contractors make weapons. Missiles, jets, bombs, ships, drones. They sell almost exclusively to the US government and allied governments. Their entire business model depends on those weapons being used and replaced. When weapons get used in a war, the government needs to reorder. That's a contract. That's revenue. That's profit. That's stock price going up. That's shareholders getting richer. The people who decide how much the US spends on defense — Pentagon officials, defense secretaries, members of congressional armed services committees — routinely leave government and immediately get board seats or executive positions at defense contractors. And vice versa. Defense contractor executives go into government and then make procurement decisions that benefit their former employers. Now do me a favour and read that again. Especially if you're like me and live in the US. With Iran it's bombs and Raytheon. With Cuba it's real estate developers, agricultural corporations, oil companies, and Republican political donors waiting to carve up a newly "opened" economy. Different contractors. Same machine. Thank god for Claude y'all.

Moving on to speculation, we're in for a ride. For legal reasons I feel the need to include that this is speculation, not fact. But I wouldn't put anything in here that wasn't factually based. The most interesting one to me is that the US has it out for China. Iran, Venezuela, and Cuba all have relationships with China. China needs Gulf oil. Closing the Strait of Hormuz hurts China's economy enormously. Destabilizing Iran, flipping Venezuela, collapsing Cuba — you've just severed China's economic relationships with three significant partners and choked its oil supply simultaneously. The Iran war might partly be a China economic warfare operation dressed up as a Middle East conflict. The next speculation that feels too real is Trump's plans for taking complete control of the western hemisphere. Again, kudos to Claude. During the Trump administration, Greenland, the Panama Canal, Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran have been looked at or sought over by Trump. There's an argument that Trump's circle, specifically Rubio and certain defense hawks, have a coherent vision of reasserting total US dominance over the western hemisphere and neutralizing every government hostile to American capital simultaneously, while they have the political window to do it.

Now we got a little off topic but here's the bottom line. Cuba is in trouble. The United States has been forcing Cuba into a regime change happening behind the scenes, with a Castro grandson potentially being groomed as an "acceptable" successor. They are doing this through suppressing the economy and people are dying. Barely any supplies are getting in and people will starve.

Wake Up. -Quiet District Girl